One of the most anticipated documents for fans of the world of the energies of the future, the New Energy Outlook 2018, a Bloomberg report that analyzes the long-term trends of national energy systems. Although the big consultancies have their own incentives, it is a very interesting report to confront the promises of the political class and the governmental objectives.
According to BNEF, 50% of the entire energy generation in the world will be wind and solar. That leads to a reduction of coal to 11% (compared to the current 38%). And all this thanks to the price of batteries. We said it a few days ago: that is the key factor that can change everything.
The New Energy Outlook explains that the price of lithium batteries has fallen by 80% since 2010 and everything seems to indicate that the price will continue to fall driven, above all, by the huge investments that are being made for the electric car.
To be precise, the NEO2018 sees 548,000 million dollars invested in batteries over the next thirty years “two thirds in the electricity network and the third in businesses and private homes.” Although those are not the biggest figures.
If we listen to the Bloomberg analysts, the total investment in energy production would be around 11.5 billion dollars. 8.4 of which will be allocated to the production of solar and wind energy, and another one and a half billion to hydroelectric and nuclear.
That would suppose to increase 17 times the photovoltaic capacity of the world and up to six times the wind power. But the most interesting thing is that “coal appears to be the biggest loser in the long term,” explained Elena Giannakopoulou, one of Bloomberg’s directors. The gas will become the main backup energy and will take approximately one trillion of future investments.
The interesting thing about the report is not the figures. No one knows what will happen 30 years from now, as no one could even imagine what it would be like today in the late 80’s. However, this type of report is based on a very accurate picture of what is happening today, the technologies we are developing and the decisions we are making.
And the photograph that the report draws is incredible: we are one step away from living an energy revolution and everything depends on the price of batteries.